Maybe we hit the bottom… and some great FUN action

A few things today:

  1. BTC is making a great effort to break out of the downward trend. It’s not clear that it’s made it yet, but it has gone up over $2000 today, so some significant progress. It’s now a case of wait and see if it can make it up over the $8500 mark and then over $9000. I think if that holds then there is a good chance we’re on the up again.
  2. FUN has seen a massive rally today… which I actually caught :). The whole concept of waiting out the dips and having faith in the stuff you buy paid off, literally. I managed to cash out my FUN at the 895 and then 860 mark which made me 0.03 profit on my trade. All in all, a huge success as I didn’t blow it by getting greedy. FUN then dipped all the way back to 700 so I’m very happy to have timed things right.
  3. Lastly I’ve now found another app (actually loads) but this one seems pretty good so far, that does alerts. I’ve set them so that my phone will alert me when FUN hits 625 and 750 as these are interesting areas to buy in or at the least to start watching carefully. Here is a link to the app:

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/acrypto-bitcoin-price-tracker/id1305881380?mt=8


Have we hit the bottom?

I’ve had no time today, so this is more of a diary entry than anything else!

BTC maybe has hit the bottom of the pull back. Not sure by any means, and so many conflicting pieces of analysis it’s fairly safe to say that no one knows, but it did dip under the $6000 mark a couple of times and maybe has made a double bottom move. There is now some growth and we are back into the $7700 range which was previously a strong level of support.


Verge Wallet

A very quick post just with some resources on Verge. I bought a little Verge a few weeks back just as another of the mainly privacy focused coins that I have a few off. Firstly here is the main website:

https://vergecurrency.com/

This is one of the coins which it is apparently still profitable to mine, although I think as it has grown in popularity recently that is gradually changing. Anyhow, the main thing I needed to do was setup a local wallet. To do that I went here:

https://verge-blockchain.com/howto

This has a useful guide which allows you to download the blockchain as a ZIP file and then install, prepare the client, and sync. It avoids the usually very slow process of syncing the chain for the first time, which is great.

I’m now up and running.


Using Stop Loss orders

One of the things the recent crash has made me think through is the concept of Stop Loss orders (essentially an order put lower than your buy price to get you out with a minimal loss if the market drops). Most of my trades in the past have been longer term… i.e. I’m buying into something which I’m invested in for the long term (by which I mean 1-3 years). These are projects that I believe are well run and will grow over time. Whilst that doesn’t mean I don’t care what happens in the short term, it does mean I’m less worried about a temporary drop. Thus I’ve not really got into the habit of using a Stop Loss order. However, I’ve recently moved back to try more short term trading, i.e. trading within the period of a few days or a max few weeks. My aim as discussed was to get to a point of making a few 0.01s a month.

Unfortunately I’ve been somewhat caught out, by the recent price drops. So much so that the coins I held have turned into somewhat longer term holds!

Partly that’s OK, because I followed my earlier advice not to invest where I wasn’t reasonably confident, however it has meant that I’m holding a bigger position than I would have liked and ultimately right now the amount of BTC I hold is lower than it was before.

This got me thinking about the Stop Loss order and how to use them effectively. It seems that the best option would be to allow some room for the market to fall a little below your buy in price. After all, it’s hard to judge the perfect point to enter, however, you should aim not to lose more than say 5% of your trade value. That minimises risk and lets you live to fight another day! So my suggestion would be to calculate the value below buy price that minimises your loss to 5%, unless the coin seems to swing wildly in which case look at recent troughs and consider setting just below that level. That way you allow for a “normal” drop so that doesn’t trigger the sell, but if it drops further you can get out.

If you’re interested to know about how to put these orders in, below are a couple of examples:

Here is a useful article on Steemit about setting Conditional order (Stop Loss orders) on Bittrex.

Here is a useful video covering the functionality of the Binance exchange


BTC Update and FUN news

BTC seems to have bounced off the 0.386 Fibonacci level. Now it’s a question of waiting and seeing if the bounce continues. Fingers crossed.
FUN has dropped down to the 0.5, and seems to have stabilised but it’s very possible to see it drop further. Hopefully some positive news from the upcoming ICE conference in the UK will help make sure that doesn’t happen. To be fair we’ve been down to this level a few times in the last couple of months, so I’m hoping for a recovery in the next few weeks. My get out with some profit point is around 0.00000865.
On the downside for FUN, Bittrex seems to be going to delist it. I’ve seen comments on Reddit which suggest that Bittrex is about to be looked at by the US regulators and they are trying to remove tokens which don’t have a current active product. Hopefully this won’t hinder FUN in the medium term, as it’s already on other strong exchanges like Binance

Quite a lot of FUD

It seems that at the moment wave after wave of FUD is really restricting the markets. BTC keeps creeping back up above $11,000 only to be hit by something else in the news which knocks it back down below $10,000. Thankfully we’ve not gone down to $7,800 level, but I don’t think that’s impossible by any means based on the general feeling. That said there does seem to be a fair amount of support at just below the $10,000 mark so hopefully we will stick here.

Regards the FUD, (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt), it seems to me that this was expected. It’s certainly something I talked to friends about. For me, the fact that BTC hit $10,000 and then shot up to nearly $20,000 was bound to awaken government regulators around the world. They are all trying to work out whether this “new” phenomenon is a good thing or not, and frankly most likely figuring out how to make revenue in taxes from it. Some also see it as a threat to centralised money control, and perhaps to their position in control of the population. For whatever reason, the news from South Korea (which was originally taken as a ban, and then a restriction of anonymous trading, and now the news from India is causing a lot of noise and worry.

I’ve found it rather interesting that the platform coins (ETH, NEO etc.) seem to have weathered this dip better than the privacy coins (CLOAK, NAV etc.). It will be interesting to see how this turns around.


FUN Research

As I get further into the trading space, looking for information about a coin is becoming more and more important as I hope it will allow some level of prediction about when a coin might peak.

For example, FUNFAIR token (FUN) is attending the ICE conference in early Feb, and has a stand etc. At the very least demonstration and awareness of the platform has the potential to increase the price.

Here are some of the places i’m looking for info. I tend to start with CoinMarketCap to find the basics including the current price.

Then I might move to the following various locations:

One piece I found useful is below:

https://coindigo.io/coin-reviews/funfair/

 


Some news about FUN token

Overnight I received an alert about some analysis on TradingView which mirrors my experience with FUN recently. It seems that it’s in a gradually dropping market… the peaks haven’t been as high recently and the lows quite a bit lower, so there is some danger of getting in at the old normal levels i.e. 880-895. That said I’m holding 0.5BTC worth which was bought between 860-880 which I think I should be able to get a profit from.

The analysis seems to suggest as much: https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/FUNBTC/10nRXZYw-Is-it-FUN-Small-movements-small-profits-to-be-made/

Also of interest is the comment about FUN applying for a license from the UK Gambling Commission on 31st Jan. Hoping that creates a peak.

I’ve also found some more info about the gambling market all up and other Crypto coins. This looks like a useful read for some more insight.

https://cypher.capital/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/FUN_Valuation_by_Cypher_Capital_October2017.pdf


Coco Framework

Microsoft COCO Framework.

Right now I’m in the back of a BA Airbus A380 on the way to an LT meeting in Miami, so what better to do than to watch some videos on blockchain? Before I left I managed to download a bunch of content from Channel 9, one of the Microsoft training sites. One particular mini series is a couple of videos where Mark Russinovich introduces blockchain.

The first video runs through many of the basics of how blockchains actually work, and in particular covers some good clear diagrams of the hashing process so you really can get a good idea of how the whole things hangs together and avoids the double spend issue. However, the second in the series takes you through the enhancements that Microsoft has made available with the COCO Framework.

Right now in business to business scenarios, like supply chain, or financial institutions, or even within large corporations between departments, there is very often a need for organizations to transact with each other. After all, that is what drives global commerce. However, how that happens is often inefficient and frequently requires a trusted third party to arbitrate. Think for example, SWIFT, that sits between the major banks processing payments. Now a blockchain has the potential to get rid of this overhead, because it can achieve transactions between non trusted entities via the distributed ledger. However, that doesn’t get rid of the need for those organization to be able to agree how to work together and codify that in some way. It also doesn’t solve the issue of privacy, as the nature of blockchain is that everyone can see all the transactions to be able to validate and achieve the trust-less transactions. Lack of privacy is not ideal where competition between suppliers or where financial transactions are concerned in general. Finally it doesn’t solve the issues that many blockchains (i.e. Ethereum) have with the ability to process a large number of transactions at speed. Right now Ethereum can process 15-20 transactions per second and often has a latency measured in tens of minutes. On top of that, all the mining energy required to process the hashes that keep the integrity of the chain and process the smart contracts is a massive waste of energy as validation happens across all mining nodes.

COCO is an answer to these problems. It’s not a blockchain in its own right, instead it integrates with blockchains to provide an enterprise trust and governance model. Essentially it provides the capability for a group of participants to agree on a set of rules by which the blockchain should operate. It also starts to solve the latency and bandwidth issues. Ethereum integrated with COCO can achieve 1500+ transactions per second, getting closer to the 2000-5000 that the VISA network processes. In addition because of the way it operates it cuts out the need for mining and smart contract validation on each node, as each node is trusted and thus each transaction once validated on one node is accepted by all others.

You might be wondering how this all works in practice. Well, as always there are layers. At the bottom we’ve got the TEE or trusted execution environment. This can be either hardware or software, but essentially is a place where we can place data and code which is encrypted and which cannot be accessed from the outside. It’s a black box, which can receive input and send outputs, but can’t be directly accessed. This is either implemented in a hardware module like SGX from Intel or the VSM (virtual secure module) built into Windows Server 2016 and protected by the Hypervisor.

The next layer up is the COCO framework. It is the glue which holds things together and also allows the governance rules to be put in place in something called the Constitution. For example, you might agree and implement rules that govern how another party might be added to the network. If you agreed that a majority of agreement was needed, then one entity could propose, via a special admin transaction, that another party be added. Then all others would vote (also by transactions) and the result would be implemented based on the constitution. The COCO framework allows participants to agree on what code runs within the TEE and these governance rules and thus what you have to comply with to be part of the blockchain. If there are any changes to anything within your TEE you are automatically excluded, so there is no chance to break into the network.

Of course on top of the COCO framework runs the blockchain, for example a modified version of Ethereum or others. Microsoft is working to make COCO open source and is partnering with various chains (like JPMC Quorum and Intel Sawtoothlake) to provide integration.

The final piece of the puzzle (for now at least) is that each node member can place ACLs on a transaction, so party A and C can transact without B being able see the content of the transaction. This solves the issues with a single blockchain being used by multiple competitors.

This all sounds pretty interesting, so the next step for me will be to figure out how to set it up in an environment. It can run either fully on prem with Windows Server 2016 or in Azure, so that’s the starting point. I will look into it, and hope to post more here soon.

P.S.

I did wonder whether NEO is integrated with COCO… as MSFT is running a whole bunch of DAPP (distributed application) competitions with the NEO team I guess it might be, but will find out more and update this.


It basically worked…

So patience paid off… I waited out the dip and actually managed to sell my FUN at a profit of 0.02. OK so not a massive profit, but still clearly profit, and frankly given the previous attempts that’s not bad…

I have to say that I did do a fair bit of the selling manually, even though the bot was running. It did sell some, but then I chickened out and sold most of the rest. I think the bot would have sold more, but I didn’t want to risk missing the profit and being greedy. In the end I did leave some money on the table, but not too much so generally a success.

I’ve not got the bot running with a few other pairs, NAV, PIVX, CLOAK and RDD. This is more of an experiment, so we will see how it turns out.