Still quiet and some research on Futures

It’s been another quiet day. Really interesting in that there has been minimal movement in Alt coins. Everything has been a little bit down on the last week so I’m still underwater on FUN, but hey, it’s not dropped out down to the 0.618 Fibonacci level yet, so I’m still hopeful that it will go back up to the 0.786 which is all I need to make a profit.

The other topic that came up today is that apparently the BTC futures are maturing… not sure whether that’s true or even frankly exactly what that means, but it’s something I’m planning on figuring out more about, as it obviously has the potential to impact the market.

These are the two providers of BTC futures and I will be exploring them further when time permits, which (as you can likely tell from the quality/brevity of this post) could be a little while!

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/bitcoin-futures.html

http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures

 


Overnight trading on FUN token

Just a quick update as a few lessons re-enforced and one learnt…

Yesterday I put money on FUN as a trial short term trade. I’d spotted a pattern where there was oscillation between 880 and 960 satoshi. It is a trend that has been coming down over the last few days, i.e. it used to be 920 and 1020 etc. My theory was even in a market that was decreasing in overall market cap that I could make money on the fluctuation.

So I bought last night and set a sell value. On the plus side the sell value 941 sats was hit. On the down side only 20% of my coins sold at that level before the price dropped. A few things therefore to think about for next time…

  1. Make sure there is enough volume to carry out the trade that you’re looking to do. (in this case I think there was, but I just set the sell price slightly too high)
  2. I was doing this manually, but with the bot, I could have set a lower trigger price, i.e. 910 sats and then had the bot sell all the way back down from 941 to 910 constantly changing the sell price to make sure I sold. I think that would have resulted in maximum profit.
  3. Finally the usual! I went in slightly too high… I.e. I was slightly impatient and if I had waited to go in an hour or so I could have got in at 880 instead of 899 and thus would now not be holding coins which are very slightly underwater.

So that’s it for now, I’m waiting for a price of 905 to get out and make a tiny profit.


Voting in ARK and new Gunbot strategies

A couple of topics today, first ARK.

ARK is another coin which uses a Proof of Stake mechanism to incentivise its network. However this one has a nuance, which is that it uses delegated proof of stake. Essentially this means that you delegate your staking rights to another party who then forges the blocks and takes the reward. The system the allocates the rewards back to the voting parties by a pre-agreed amount. This means that the delegates can choose to return all (100%) of the reward back to the voter or part of it, and use the rest for some type of community action. This gives rise to a market place of ideas where you can choose to vote and effectively fund community development. It’s an interesting idea with a lot of potential.

I won’t go through exactly how I did it, frankly because for some reason images are not working in my blog right now, and you need to see to properly understand, however I will link to a couple of useful resources:

Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yf5F2dkMmSU

Mini Guide: Mining, Staking, Forging, Voting – how to get more Ark from ArkEcosystem

UPDATE: He’s a link to the vote calculator I used: http://calculator.reconnico.com/

Now the second topic is that after explaining my needs for a bot, I got talking to some people on the GunBot telegram channel. It turns out there have been big development since version 3 which I last used. We’re now on version 7 and there are new strategies. Particularly “Trailing Stop / Stop Limit: a moving range for buying and selling, trailing optimal buy and sell levels.”

More info is here: https://github.com/GuntharDeNiro/BTCT/wiki/About-Gunbot-strategies

I believe that this combined with Ping pong, will allow me to set my buy level and then have the bot watch and sell at the appropriate place… more detail to come once I get it working.


Wishing I could program… would like a custom bot.

One of the downsides of not having done a computing degree, is that I have never learnt to program. Over the course of my career I’ve dabbled in PowerShell, some examples from years ago of which are still on this blog, however, i’ve never really learnt the basic fundamentals of how to create a program. Unfortunately right now that is annoying me as I would like to be able to pull data from Bittrex using their API and then act on it.

For example, yesterday I talked about the concept of shorter term trading. Now really you either need to be in front of a PC 24/7 or you need someone/something acting for you. I’ve a few ideas for how I want to trade, but don’t really have the time. Therefore I want a bot.

The bot I think, should do a few things.

  1. Report on current values for certain chosen coins.
  2. Issue alerts when coins enter a certain range and show which direction they entered from, i.e. up or down.
  3. Purchase a coin at a preset value chosen by me.
  4. Wait and see what happens next!
  5. If the coin loses more than 20% of value, sell.
  6. When the coin rises to a certain level sell, ideally unless that coin is still rising, in which case wait and sell near the high point. (i.e. something like, watch it rise, hit a trigger which is an acceptable profit, then keep watching and prepare to sell, if it then drops more than 5% from there, sell. If not keep holding and then sell after the highest point from which there is a 5% drop.

No doubt there will be some misses, i.e. some missed opportunities to go higher etc. but the point here is to make a reasonable return, not to get the ultimate perfect return.

I believe that Gunbot can do a bunch of this, but i’m not sure it can do all, plus it’s really rather complex, so I figured creating something I new from scratch would be good. Anyhow that bring me back to being able to program, which I can’t! In fact frankly I’m not really even sure where to start, so this could be a somewhat long journey, unless anyone out there wants to help?


A short term investment strategy.

Right now I feel pretty comfortable with my portfolio for long term holds. I think it’s pretty balanced and has a bunch of coins which have a long term future. It’s mixed between BTC and then Alts in the platform and privacy spaces. Then it’s supplemented with some identity tokens, gaming, exchange, and advertising space offerings.

However, I’m realistically not planning on trading those coins a whole lot. Obviously if all time highs are reached (ATH) in coins I will look at taking some profit to put back into BTC or perhaps invest into other new coins, but I’m not looking at short term gains on those coins. At least, not with those I have right now.

However, I am now thinking about what I can do to make a regular monthly return. For the last year or so I’ve been paying into an ISA (a tax free savings account in the UK). Now you could argue that that’s a pretty stupid choice, given that Crypto has gone up way more this year, however frankly I only even started with Crypto in June 2017 and I really had no idea of the concepts or potential. Even now, let’s face it, this is a highly volatile space. So, whilst I believe that there is every chance this will change the world, literally, I am also sensible enough to spread my risk and invest in various fashions. A pension, for retirement, medium / long term savings in the ISA, and then Crypto for the short / medium term.

What I’m therefore working on is how can I make the same amount I put into my ISA each month from Crypto. This is a slightly different mindset because it requires more focus and opportunistic trading, rather than the slightly more laissez-faire approach that perhaps you can get away with when you’re looking for a return in 1-3 years.

Therefore here’s what i’m thinking.

To make a good and relatively rapid return, I need to do the obvious. Buy low and sell higher! In addition, trading with a relatively large amount, i.e. 1 BTC means that gains are multiplied fairly quickly. Of course losses are too, so the risk is higher, but that leads me to my next point. I won’t trade coins that I don’t want to keep. That way, worse case scenario, I end up with more of a coin that I hold in my long term portfolio.

The next point is that I need to find a coin that is moving reasonably regularly. Looking at coins that a very stable like LTC for this, likely wouldn’t be all that good. So i’ve been thinking about things like FUN and NAV and CVC, which have all had pretty decent swings recently. These are all in my medium term portfolio so there is an element of safety.

Here are some examples:

Buy 1BTC worth of FUN at 850 satoshi (above the recent low points, but not crazy high) – If it goes up to 950 satoshi, which is has done several times in the last week or two, then you make 0.11 BTC, easily more than I’m putting into the ISA. Now ideally I would have a bot trade that, which would keep trying to maximise the peaks and troughs, i.e. wait to buy until a real dip was detected and wait to sell until a peak, but realistically, I’m not certain I know how to get that to work reliably. I’m going to play around with Gunbot a little more and see how it’s developed in the last three months since I last used it. So likely to start with I will pick an entry point and place a buy order, and then set an alert on my phone for that buy point (need to figure that out!). I will then set a manual sell point, likely relatively conservatively and take my profit. Yes, I could make more at the top end, but ultimately I’m looking to make money, and i’ve found one of the biggest reasons for not making money, is being greedy and waiting for that little bit more profit! Finally the thing to remember is that I only need to make this work once a month. So having the patience to wait for the correct entry point, and not rushing it, is important to the chances of success.

I will report back and let you know how it goes.


Masternodes are the next big things / scam!

Over the last few weeks it seems everyone is raving about Masternodes. Essentially as I’ve mentioned before BitCoin works on a concept called Proof of Work, which is where you solve complex maths to earn tokens essentially to keep the network running. Proof of Stake is another way of running a network whereby holding coins allows you to claim a reward for assisting to process transactions. My understanding is that Masternodes are basically part of that type of concept. One of the challenges with that approach is that it can lead to centralisation, as only a few people can afford enough of a coin to start up a Masternode, however the bar to entry isn’t that high for all coins. The website http://Masternodes.pro gives a breakdown of many of the coins out there which use this technology. It outlines the cost of entry and the expected return.

Frankly, some of the figures are ridiculous. I mean 1000%+ return in a year sounds a whole lot like a ponzu scheme to me… i.e. come and buy our coin… we will return coins to you, and then at some point will dump our whole stock and run, leaving you with worthless coins. Maybe not, but frankly looking at the website for some of these coins, you can see that there is very little substance there. It seems to me another example of a way to trick unsuspecting people into investing into a coin which the devs already have loads of and will sell to others to enter.

To be fair that’s not the case for all, for example Dash, Crown, ZCoin, Pivx are all good coins but generally with a fairly high entry barrier. Crown is the cheapest to enter of all these, and frankly the least exciting technology / aims wise.

All in all, anything that can provide a stable form of passive income is great, just don’t be caught out with some of these too good to be true numbers.


An outline of my portfolio

One of the things I’ve really struggled with is getting my portfolio to a place where I’m happy with it. There are so many aspects to consider and i think right now I’m about 95% there.

I wanted to have a decent portion in BTC because it is really still the driving force behind the market. In fact in general, I’d much rather have more BTC at this point rather than a higher dollar value of the overall portfolio. Of course to achieve that you have a couple of main options… buy more BTC with fiat currency, or buy Alt coins that you believe will move faster than BTC. I have to say over the last six months I’ve swung back and forth, frankly without all that much science, between having the portfolio almost all in BTC and having it almost all in Alts.

Getting the flipping point wrong is what has cost most of the BTC that I’ve lost over the time. I.e. I have essentially panic sold Alts on two occasions either when specific regional news (the first China crackdown which made NEO tank) happens or when BTC was pumping like mad and all Alts took a hammering. At that last point, I massively over reacted and moved alts to BTC when it looked like BTC was going above $20K. Of course we now know that didn’t happen and the Alts rebounded hard.

All in all a hard lesson / costly lesson to learn, but one which has contributed to where I am now. So where is that?

Well, at this point I’ve invested in the following as mainstays of the portfolio:

  • BTC approx 45%
  • NAV approx 12.5%
  • NEO approx 10%
  • ETH approx 7%
  • RaiBlocks approx 6.25%
  • LTC 5%
  • ADX 2.5%
  • Cloak 2.5%
  • Ark 2.5%
  • BNB 1.25%
  • CVC 1.25%
  • XVG 1/125th
  • FUN 1/200th
  • BTG 1/200th
  • POE 1/400th
  • TRON 1/1000th

My general aim is to invest in coins which I believe in for the long term i.e. 1-3 years at least. I think the the vast majority of the above is in that category. I have also then picked some lucky picks so to speak. I.e. coins that you think just might do 10,000% growth in a couple of years, but might die out. I figure if I make 5-10 of these picks and put £100-200 each into them, If even one does that type of growth then I’ll be very pleased.

So that’s an outline and some of the reasoning behind the choices. Over the next few weeks I’m going to write a few posts on each of the main coins and why I like them and particularly what they have coming up.


A roller-coaster ride and some learning

Today it’s been another rocky day for Crypto in general. BTC in particular though has continued the recent slump.

If you look at the technical analysis side of things, you can see that BTC has hit another support area at around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, however, that’s a pretty small space, and there is a real chance we could come down another jump all the way to the $7400-7800 mark.

 

At this point we’re really bouncing around and I’ve got some in BTC and some in cash so frankly am hoping for another dip…

…some time later…

Well that dip hasn’t happened. In fact so far it’s gone back and recovered slightly. Now it’s not all that clear… I.e. I’ve no idea what will happen next. Logically I suspect that unless a rally materialises and we push back up above resistant levels to the 11-12k$ mark chances are we could still come all the way down to $7400. However i’m not sure I have the guts to sell now and wait so I will have to be satisfied with the small profit I made for now.


Bloodbath

It’s been a hell of a day in Crypto today… red right across the board with some coins losing over 50% of their value.

The choice to buy back in the other day seems pretty silly now, but hey, BTC has done this before, let’s hope patterns repeat. As it stands i’ve used the chance for lower Alt/BTC prices to accumulate some more Alts to balance my portfolio. Here’s hoping that things rebound in the next few weeks.

Realistically, BTC has these big drops and it’s interesting to see the panic that creates across the whole marketplace. It is clear BTC has a massive impact. It is also true to say that patterns like this have been seen over the last few years. A big correction over a 4-8 week period, often sets up the next bull run.

My plan, wait it out and see what comes next. Hope that some of the Alts I’ve bought recover quicker than BTC and that overall things pan out. Fingers crossed.


They say patience is a virtue.

Another short post today, because it’s been a rather busy weekend! Yesterday afternoon and evening I was playing in the Farnborough Symphony Orchestra for our January concert. Then today a complete change of scene at Surrey Sports Park in Guildford for the new year squash tournament.

So all in all not much time for Crypto… however, I was in the middle of that short position having sold a couple of BTC. That led to a fair bit of checking the phone yesterday during rehearsals… wishing that BTC would go down in value and watching it hover around the £10,400 mark. Anyhow, my suggested to be patient and wait a bit, and this morning when I woke up BTC was back down just under the £10,000 mark, so my buy order had been fulfilled and I now have the BTC back. Logically it should be possible to keep doing this when a market settles into a pattern like this for a few days, but there is some argument as to whether the stress is really worth it!

Whilst I think of it one other thing to share, Coin Ticker is a really useful app… or perhaps a really stressful app. It allows you to log your portfolio on your phone and keep track of things… however it does lead to constant checking. Still it’s useful and nice to be able to track things over time on your phone, as it helps to recognise the patterns in the market if you can build up a regular understanding of what certain coins do over 1, 5 and 30 days.

Here’s a link in case you’re interested: Coin Ticker: Bitcoin & Altcoin by Zijun Huang