Stop Buy Orders and buying on Confirmation

One of the things i’ve been reading a fair bit about in the last few days is technical analysis (TA). Obviously this is a massive subject with 100+ years of techniques and strategies to get your head around. However one of the things that has really stood out to me recently is the need to be more certain about when to enter and exit the market.

The basic concept here is that you should be looking to TA to figure out when the price is most likely to move in a certain direction. It seems that there are a handful of indicators that people mostly use in this regard. In no particular order:

  • Volume
  • RSI
  • MACD
  • Fibonacci
  • Various Flags, Pennants, and Wedges!
  • Patterns like Head and Shoulders
  • Elliot Waves

At the moment, I am getting the hang of the general shapes, in particular things like the Flags and Pennants make a lot of sense and are clearly visible. More info here:

I’m also pretty comfortable with the Fibonacci series and how that can be used to look at likely support and resistance points. I’ve still got learning to do around tracking volume, RSI and MACD.

Anyhow, with regards the main point of the post, Stop buy orders and buying on confirmation. The concept is, that actually you don’t always want to buy at the lowest possible point, because you are trying to manage risk. For example if you look at something like Cardano (ADA) which has been gradually moving downwards in a wedge shape for the last few days, it is in this falling wedge but the movements are getting ever smaller. In addition it’s hovering around the major support level presented at the 3124 satoshi mark which is the top of previous highs in mid to late December. Therefore what we’re looking for is a breakout above the falling channel.

To my mind then, if ADA breaks out above 3350 sats there is a good chance with enough volume, that it will have broken the bear market and is heading higher again.

With all that in mind, you could therefore argue that waiting to buy in at somewhere in the 3500 mark or would be a good plan.

I believe that this is possible on various exchanges. Some times it is called a Stop Buy order. I think that it’s possible to execute on Bittrex with a conditional buy order as shown in the shots below:

First we start with the buy settings.

We need to select a Conditional order

Then we need to set the condition, which is in this case greater than or equal to

Then we end up with this, which to my mind means that if ADA goes above 4000 satoshi we will buy.

I’m going to test this out and see where things go. Obviously it would be great to also be able to put in your limit sell order at the same time. I think on Bitfinex more of that is possible, i.e. stacking orders, but I’ve not signed up yet so will keep researching.

Lots more to learn!

Litecoin Cash (LCC) fork

It seems that the recent surge in the LTC price has come because of a promised fork that will occur at block 1371111 which is likely to be mined sometime on Sunday 18th February. The new coin will be LCC and you will get 10 for every 1 LTC you hold.

As with some of the recent BTC forks it’s not all that clear whether this new coin will bring any particular benefit. After all, the stated aims of changing the Hashing algorithm to SHA256 instead of Scrypt so that older BTC mining gear becomes useful is all very well, but that only really appeals to miners, there needs to be something useful for the coin to do, to build a community behind it, otherwise it just becomes another rubbish coin setup for Pump and Dump schemes.

At this point there doesn’t seem to be any software out there to use as a wallet and Trezor isn’t planning on supporting the fork at this time.

All in all, it sounds like another attempt by someone to make a bit of money off an existing well known brand!

Comments on wallets for ICX and PIVX

Just a quick note today. I wanted to get my ICX and PIVX off the Binance exchange and into wallets where I control the keys. Actually it turned out to be dead simple, but here are a couple of quick tips if you’re trying.

Firstly ICX (ICON); this is currently an ERC20 token on the ETH chain, so it should be dead easy to put into MEW (MyEtherWallet) linked to my Trezor. Well it turns out it is, however a while back it wasn’t! There is still information out there about adding ICS as a custom token:

Information about ICX

It turns out that’s no longer needed but if you’re searching it could cause confusion. Either way, if you go and try to add the custom token MEW will tell you it already exists do no damage done.

Secondly PIVX; you will find that by default PIVX makes 10% of your coins into zPiv which is, I believe, part of their privacy system. If you want to stop that behaviour, which I did, just to keep things simple, then you can do it by editing the config file in the wallet. Details are here:

Raiblocks – Nano theft

Turns out another Exchange, this time BitGrail, has been hacked. It does rather re-enforce the very sensible guidance of don’t leave anything on an Exchange that you can’t afford to lose. BitGrail has had approx $170M of Nano (previously Raiblocks) stolen which has had rather a nasty effect on the price! Raiblocks is looking precisely like one of those investments that I rather wish I hadn’t made… I missed the big pump and got in high. I’m now just wondering if it will last the course and get back to where it was. Rather hoping it will, especially as it’s trading on Binance now as then I can look at getting out with small profit. Right now it’s at literally half the price I need it to be at to get out with profit… so we’re some way off 🙁

Responsive support and a Binance Outage

Slow day today as Binance has been down all day! A little scary, but to be fair to them, they have been doing a professional job on the support front. Regular updates every two hours on Twitter. Follow @Binance_2017 for info. Apparently they had a DB failover issue and then had to resync. Now given that they have millions of users that’s going to be one hell of a resync! Fingers crossed they are back up sometime in the small hours as planned (4amUTC on 9th).

In other news, the Coin Ticker app that i’ve been using for my portfolio view has had a major update. Nice new portfolio view that shows change and more coin info. However, they did remove one thing I find critical which is the view of the amount of BTC each coin amounts to. Thankfully again decent support. I contacted them on Twitter and had a reply within a couple of hours saying that it would be back in an update soon.

Maybe we hit the bottom… and some great FUN action

A few things today:

  1. BTC is making a great effort to break out of the downward trend. It’s not clear that it’s made it yet, but it has gone up over $2000 today, so some significant progress. It’s now a case of wait and see if it can make it up over the $8500 mark and then over $9000. I think if that holds then there is a good chance we’re on the up again.
  2. FUN has seen a massive rally today… which I actually caught :). The whole concept of waiting out the dips and having faith in the stuff you buy paid off, literally. I managed to cash out my FUN at the 895 and then 860 mark which made me 0.03 profit on my trade. All in all, a huge success as I didn’t blow it by getting greedy. FUN then dipped all the way back to 700 so I’m very happy to have timed things right.
  3. Lastly I’ve now found another app (actually loads) but this one seems pretty good so far, that does alerts. I’ve set them so that my phone will alert me when FUN hits 625 and 750 as these are interesting areas to buy in or at the least to start watching carefully. Here is a link to the app:

Have we hit the bottom?

I’ve had no time today, so this is more of a diary entry than anything else!

BTC maybe has hit the bottom of the pull back. Not sure by any means, and so many conflicting pieces of analysis it’s fairly safe to say that no one knows, but it did dip under the $6000 mark a couple of times and maybe has made a double bottom move. There is now some growth and we are back into the $7700 range which was previously a strong level of support.

Verge Wallet

A very quick post just with some resources on Verge. I bought a little Verge a few weeks back just as another of the mainly privacy focused coins that I have a few off. Firstly here is the main website:

This is one of the coins which it is apparently still profitable to mine, although I think as it has grown in popularity recently that is gradually changing. Anyhow, the main thing I needed to do was setup a local wallet. To do that I went here:

This has a useful guide which allows you to download the blockchain as a ZIP file and then install, prepare the client, and sync. It avoids the usually very slow process of syncing the chain for the first time, which is great.

I’m now up and running.

BTC Update and FUN news

BTC seems to have bounced off the 0.386 Fibonacci level. Now it’s a question of waiting and seeing if the bounce continues. Fingers crossed.
FUN has dropped down to the 0.5, and seems to have stabilised but it’s very possible to see it drop further. Hopefully some positive news from the upcoming ICE conference in the UK will help make sure that doesn’t happen. To be fair we’ve been down to this level a few times in the last couple of months, so I’m hoping for a recovery in the next few weeks. My get out with some profit point is around 0.00000865.
On the downside for FUN, Bittrex seems to be going to delist it. I’ve seen comments on Reddit which suggest that Bittrex is about to be looked at by the US regulators and they are trying to remove tokens which don’t have a current active product. Hopefully this won’t hinder FUN in the medium term, as it’s already on other strong exchanges like Binance

FUN Research

As I get further into the trading space, looking for information about a coin is becoming more and more important as I hope it will allow some level of prediction about when a coin might peak.

For example, FUNFAIR token (FUN) is attending the ICE conference in early Feb, and has a stand etc. At the very least demonstration and awareness of the platform has the potential to increase the price.

Here are some of the places i’m looking for info. I tend to start with CoinMarketCap to find the basics including the current price.

Then I might move to the following various locations:

One piece I found useful is below: