Some news about FUN token

Overnight I received an alert about some analysis on TradingView which mirrors my experience with FUN recently. It seems that it’s in a gradually dropping market… the peaks haven’t been as high recently and the lows quite a bit lower, so there is some danger of getting in at the old normal levels i.e. 880-895. That said I’m holding 0.5BTC worth which was bought between 860-880 which I think I should be able to get a profit from.

The analysis seems to suggest as much: https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/FUNBTC/10nRXZYw-Is-it-FUN-Small-movements-small-profits-to-be-made/

Also of interest is the comment about FUN applying for a license from the UK Gambling Commission on 31st Jan. Hoping that creates a peak.

I’ve also found some more info about the gambling market all up and other Crypto coins. This looks like a useful read for some more insight.

https://cypher.capital/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/FUN_Valuation_by_Cypher_Capital_October2017.pdf


It basically worked…

So patience paid off… I waited out the dip and actually managed to sell my FUN at a profit of 0.02. OK so not a massive profit, but still clearly profit, and frankly given the previous attempts that’s not bad…

I have to say that I did do a fair bit of the selling manually, even though the bot was running. It did sell some, but then I chickened out and sold most of the rest. I think the bot would have sold more, but I didn’t want to risk missing the profit and being greedy. In the end I did leave some money on the table, but not too much so generally a success.

I’ve not got the bot running with a few other pairs, NAV, PIVX, CLOAK and RDD. This is more of an experiment, so we will see how it turns out.


Overnight trading on FUN token

Just a quick update as a few lessons re-enforced and one learnt…

Yesterday I put money on FUN as a trial short term trade. I’d spotted a pattern where there was oscillation between 880 and 960 satoshi. It is a trend that has been coming down over the last few days, i.e. it used to be 920 and 1020 etc. My theory was even in a market that was decreasing in overall market cap that I could make money on the fluctuation.

So I bought last night and set a sell value. On the plus side the sell value 941 sats was hit. On the down side only 20% of my coins sold at that level before the price dropped. A few things therefore to think about for next time…

  1. Make sure there is enough volume to carry out the trade that you’re looking to do. (in this case I think there was, but I just set the sell price slightly too high)
  2. I was doing this manually, but with the bot, I could have set a lower trigger price, i.e. 910 sats and then had the bot sell all the way back down from 941 to 910 constantly changing the sell price to make sure I sold. I think that would have resulted in maximum profit.
  3. Finally the usual! I went in slightly too high… I.e. I was slightly impatient and if I had waited to go in an hour or so I could have got in at 880 instead of 899 and thus would now not be holding coins which are very slightly underwater.

So that’s it for now, I’m waiting for a price of 905 to get out and make a tiny profit.


Voting in ARK and new Gunbot strategies

A couple of topics today, first ARK.

ARK is another coin which uses a Proof of Stake mechanism to incentivise its network. However this one has a nuance, which is that it uses delegated proof of stake. Essentially this means that you delegate your staking rights to another party who then forges the blocks and takes the reward. The system the allocates the rewards back to the voting parties by a pre-agreed amount. This means that the delegates can choose to return all (100%) of the reward back to the voter or part of it, and use the rest for some type of community action. This gives rise to a market place of ideas where you can choose to vote and effectively fund community development. It’s an interesting idea with a lot of potential.

I won’t go through exactly how I did it, frankly because for some reason images are not working in my blog right now, and you need to see to properly understand, however I will link to a couple of useful resources:

Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yf5F2dkMmSU

Mini Guide: Mining, Staking, Forging, Voting – how to get more Ark from ArkEcosystem

UPDATE: He’s a link to the vote calculator I used: http://calculator.reconnico.com/

Now the second topic is that after explaining my needs for a bot, I got talking to some people on the GunBot telegram channel. It turns out there have been big development since version 3 which I last used. We’re now on version 7 and there are new strategies. Particularly “Trailing Stop / Stop Limit: a moving range for buying and selling, trailing optimal buy and sell levels.”

More info is here: https://github.com/GuntharDeNiro/BTCT/wiki/About-Gunbot-strategies

I believe that this combined with Ping pong, will allow me to set my buy level and then have the bot watch and sell at the appropriate place… more detail to come once I get it working.


An outline of my portfolio

One of the things I’ve really struggled with is getting my portfolio to a place where I’m happy with it. There are so many aspects to consider and i think right now I’m about 95% there.

I wanted to have a decent portion in BTC because it is really still the driving force behind the market. In fact in general, I’d much rather have more BTC at this point rather than a higher dollar value of the overall portfolio. Of course to achieve that you have a couple of main options… buy more BTC with fiat currency, or buy Alt coins that you believe will move faster than BTC. I have to say over the last six months I’ve swung back and forth, frankly without all that much science, between having the portfolio almost all in BTC and having it almost all in Alts.

Getting the flipping point wrong is what has cost most of the BTC that I’ve lost over the time. I.e. I have essentially panic sold Alts on two occasions either when specific regional news (the first China crackdown which made NEO tank) happens or when BTC was pumping like mad and all Alts took a hammering. At that last point, I massively over reacted and moved alts to BTC when it looked like BTC was going above $20K. Of course we now know that didn’t happen and the Alts rebounded hard.

All in all a hard lesson / costly lesson to learn, but one which has contributed to where I am now. So where is that?

Well, at this point I’ve invested in the following as mainstays of the portfolio:

  • BTC approx 45%
  • NAV approx 12.5%
  • NEO approx 10%
  • ETH approx 7%
  • RaiBlocks approx 6.25%
  • LTC 5%
  • ADX 2.5%
  • Cloak 2.5%
  • Ark 2.5%
  • BNB 1.25%
  • CVC 1.25%
  • XVG 1/125th
  • FUN 1/200th
  • BTG 1/200th
  • POE 1/400th
  • TRON 1/1000th

My general aim is to invest in coins which I believe in for the long term i.e. 1-3 years at least. I think the the vast majority of the above is in that category. I have also then picked some lucky picks so to speak. I.e. coins that you think just might do 10,000% growth in a couple of years, but might die out. I figure if I make 5-10 of these picks and put £100-200 each into them, If even one does that type of growth then I’ll be very pleased.

So that’s an outline and some of the reasoning behind the choices. Over the next few weeks I’m going to write a few posts on each of the main coins and why I like them and particularly what they have coming up.


A roller-coaster ride and some learning

Today it’s been another rocky day for Crypto in general. BTC in particular though has continued the recent slump.

If you look at the technical analysis side of things, you can see that BTC has hit another support area at around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, however, that’s a pretty small space, and there is a real chance we could come down another jump all the way to the $7400-7800 mark.

 

At this point we’re really bouncing around and I’ve got some in BTC and some in cash so frankly am hoping for another dip…

…some time later…

Well that dip hasn’t happened. In fact so far it’s gone back and recovered slightly. Now it’s not all that clear… I.e. I’ve no idea what will happen next. Logically I suspect that unless a rally materialises and we push back up above resistant levels to the 11-12k$ mark chances are we could still come all the way down to $7400. However i’m not sure I have the guts to sell now and wait so I will have to be satisfied with the small profit I made for now.


Shorting is stressful

Maybe i’ll learn… maybe?

There are so many decisions to make trading crypto. I thought that it was about time to pull some money out, not because of any specific market analysis, more just on a personal risk level sense. However, having done that, I then regretted it, and asked myself what if… i.e. how annoyed am I going to be when BTC gets to £18,000 / $25,000 versus the $14,000/£10400 it’s at now.

So I went back in, or at least I went partially back in, and made a little profit. However, I then decided to go back in with the rest of the money I left out, and now i’m underwater on that bit… so effectively I’ve shorted BTC and am waiting for it to drop. Slightly scary given it looks like not going quite that low at the moment!

Ah well… fingers crossed.


Trading lessons learned (or perhaps learning!)

One thing that of course everyone kind of knows, but doesn’t always act on is that trading is a very risky proposition. There are simply so many reasons it can go wrong.

For example, as I mentioned the other day I’ve just got into Raiblocks. However, realistically, at least in the short term I got in a few days late. One of the major challenges I find is that trading effectively seems to need more time than I really have. I.e. the ability to not only research entry and exit points, but also to have time to actually act when you need to, rather than that few days late (which seems to be my normal at the moment). Another example of this issues is Kin. A few days back that looked like a good bet, it had recently moved into the Coinmarketcap top 100 at 4 Satoshi. Sadly at that point I did nothing… or rather I did something else at the time. The next morning it was at 9, i.e. over 100% growth.

On the plus side, one of the lessons I’m learning is to now hold off jumping in late. Agreed that doesn’t always work, i.e. you may lose out on a further jump, but realistically these things are normally triggered. The error I’ve made with Raiblocks is misunderstanding that the trigger that took it from 10000 Satoshi to 24000 Satoshi was most likely getting listed on a couple of bigger exchanges. Binance and Kucoin. Sadly I missed the initial bump and then tried to catch the bump from the listing, although it had essentially already happened. With BTC jumping up in the last couple of days, that’s left me under water again. Another expensive lesson to learn!

My other challenge is not being strict enough / structured enough. I.e. actually my first investment into Raiblocks was actually reasonable even now, 0.1 BTC at approx 17500 is less than 5% of my portfolio and was a reasonable entry price albeit not a great one. I then followed that with 0.2 on a whim chasing the entry on the bigger exchanges. Once again impulsive and without a clear plan, plus taking it over my 5% risk limit that I like on any one Alt coin.

Luckily one of the things that does seem true is that so long as the fundamentals are good, i.e. the project is run by quality people and has a decent roadmap, things will come back in time, and therefore panic selling has the potential to lose you money permanently. Unfortunately I’ve learnt this all too often, with NEO, Binance and others making big gains recently, when sadly i’d already sold as I figured BTC would keep on going up a few weeks back, causing Alts to drop further. I think therefore this time, I will simply wait, at least until I’ve recouped some of the losses, and then rebalance, to free up some BTC for other investments.


Getting started with RaiBlocks

After a tip off from a friend, I’ve spend a few hours in the last week messing with RaiBlocks. RaiBlocks are a relatively new currency which have some rather interesting technology. It’s a new type of blockchain which aims to solve some of the problems in chains like Bitcoin… i.e. high transaction fees, and slow transaction times. To find out more checkout the sites below:

The main website is here: https://raiblocks.net/

There is a useful FAQ here: https://raiblocks.net/page/faq.php

I bought my first 0.1 BTC of RaiBlocks a few days back and it’s already gone up in value… so a nice start :). Still there is work to do on the main wallet.

I downloaded and ran on a Windows machine, but had some trouble syncing… i.e. after nearly 48 hours it still wasn’t anywhere near done! Apparently this has a lot to do with the type of technology used, i.e. the Block Lattice. This apparently means that you’re really downloading millions of tiny blocks / accounts rather than the more normal larger blocks of Bitcoin or other currencies. This puts a big load on the file system which takes a while to process everything. Anyhow, thankfully there is another way. Download the entire chain upfront and then let it sync the final pieces. This is described here: https://yadi.sk/d/fcZgyES73Jzj5T

That link also has the latest download files. I managed to follow the instructions and get everything synced. One thing to point out is that it would appear the big number in yellow in this shot below is the blocks you have downloaded and if you have a number in brackets next to it, then that is the ones still remaining to be synced.

Screen Shot 2018-01-06 at 13.44.33

Anyhow, once all this was done the wallet fully synced and then my transaction entered the pending state. It seemed to stay like this for a while but after shutting and re-opening the wallet it showed up as confirmed. This can be confirmed using the block explorer and transaction ID: https://raiblocks.net/block/index.php?h=35ADB2740AB70AF05BF49E99A73F5ED1158627619258757E51046CF0F2D1AE1B

Anyhow, it seems like this technology is growing in popularity and hopefully as it gets onto bigger exchanges in 2018 it will become mainstream and increase in value further.

Thanks for reading.

Cheers

Nathan