How low will it go?

Today has been a heck of a day, with BTC dropping down to the $7600 mark for the first time since November. To be honest though that was something that has looked possible for a while. The question now is whether it breaks that level and heads down to $5500 which was the roughly the next major level of support.

Personally I’m not too worried (I am a bit!) because in many ways a drop like this I see as an opportunity to get in again which I didn’t think I would have. Many people have said that the correction was very much needed given the ridiculous run up late last year. So all in all if we stabilise here and then start some growth that would be great. Time to watch and wait.

Of course this dip has had a major impact on the Alts too. One thought is that now is a wonderful time to pick up some bargains. I’m looking at PIVX and Crown and considering these as possible masternode opportunities. Not sure I can quite get enough together to do that but it’s an interesting thought.

Finally one Rai of light… is Raiblocks! It’s just rebranded to Nano and is doing well… remarkably it’s sitting at the level I bought in at… so there is some hope even in this market!

Time to HODL and pickup some bargains and hope that in the next few weeks after Chinese New Year things start to rally and the bad news settles down.


Quite a lot of FUD

It seems that at the moment wave after wave of FUD is really restricting the markets. BTC keeps creeping back up above $11,000 only to be hit by something else in the news which knocks it back down below $10,000. Thankfully we’ve not gone down to $7,800 level, but I don’t think that’s impossible by any means based on the general feeling. That said there does seem to be a fair amount of support at just below the $10,000 mark so hopefully we will stick here.

Regards the FUD, (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt), it seems to me that this was expected. It’s certainly something I talked to friends about. For me, the fact that BTC hit $10,000 and then shot up to nearly $20,000 was bound to awaken government regulators around the world. They are all trying to work out whether this “new” phenomenon is a good thing or not, and frankly most likely figuring out how to make revenue in taxes from it. Some also see it as a threat to centralised money control, and perhaps to their position in control of the population. For whatever reason, the news from South Korea (which was originally taken as a ban, and then a restriction of anonymous trading, and now the news from India is causing a lot of noise and worry.

I’ve found it rather interesting that the platform coins (ETH, NEO etc.) seem to have weathered this dip better than the privacy coins (CLOAK, NAV etc.). It will be interesting to see how this turns around.


FUN Research

As I get further into the trading space, looking for information about a coin is becoming more and more important as I hope it will allow some level of prediction about when a coin might peak.

For example, FUNFAIR token (FUN) is attending the ICE conference in early Feb, and has a stand etc. At the very least demonstration and awareness of the platform has the potential to increase the price.

Here are some of the places i’m looking for info. I tend to start with CoinMarketCap to find the basics including the current price.

Then I might move to the following various locations:

One piece I found useful is below:

https://coindigo.io/coin-reviews/funfair/

 


Some news about FUN token

Overnight I received an alert about some analysis on TradingView which mirrors my experience with FUN recently. It seems that it’s in a gradually dropping market… the peaks haven’t been as high recently and the lows quite a bit lower, so there is some danger of getting in at the old normal levels i.e. 880-895. That said I’m holding 0.5BTC worth which was bought between 860-880 which I think I should be able to get a profit from.

The analysis seems to suggest as much: https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/FUNBTC/10nRXZYw-Is-it-FUN-Small-movements-small-profits-to-be-made/

Also of interest is the comment about FUN applying for a license from the UK Gambling Commission on 31st Jan. Hoping that creates a peak.

I’ve also found some more info about the gambling market all up and other Crypto coins. This looks like a useful read for some more insight.

https://cypher.capital/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/FUN_Valuation_by_Cypher_Capital_October2017.pdf


Some great resources to get into Microsoft blockchain projects

A really short post today as I’m out in the US with the team. Here are some really useful links which will take you to a host of Microsoft Azure related resources covering where Microsoft is headed with blockchain.

https://azure.microsoft.com/en-gb/solutions/blockchain

https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/project-bletchley-blockchain-infrastruature-made-easy/

https://github.com/Azure/azure-blockchain-projects/tree/master/Bletchley


Coco Framework

Microsoft COCO Framework.

Right now I’m in the back of a BA Airbus A380 on the way to an LT meeting in Miami, so what better to do than to watch some videos on blockchain? Before I left I managed to download a bunch of content from Channel 9, one of the Microsoft training sites. One particular mini series is a couple of videos where Mark Russinovich introduces blockchain.

The first video runs through many of the basics of how blockchains actually work, and in particular covers some good clear diagrams of the hashing process so you really can get a good idea of how the whole things hangs together and avoids the double spend issue. However, the second in the series takes you through the enhancements that Microsoft has made available with the COCO Framework.

Right now in business to business scenarios, like supply chain, or financial institutions, or even within large corporations between departments, there is very often a need for organizations to transact with each other. After all, that is what drives global commerce. However, how that happens is often inefficient and frequently requires a trusted third party to arbitrate. Think for example, SWIFT, that sits between the major banks processing payments. Now a blockchain has the potential to get rid of this overhead, because it can achieve transactions between non trusted entities via the distributed ledger. However, that doesn’t get rid of the need for those organization to be able to agree how to work together and codify that in some way. It also doesn’t solve the issue of privacy, as the nature of blockchain is that everyone can see all the transactions to be able to validate and achieve the trust-less transactions. Lack of privacy is not ideal where competition between suppliers or where financial transactions are concerned in general. Finally it doesn’t solve the issues that many blockchains (i.e. Ethereum) have with the ability to process a large number of transactions at speed. Right now Ethereum can process 15-20 transactions per second and often has a latency measured in tens of minutes. On top of that, all the mining energy required to process the hashes that keep the integrity of the chain and process the smart contracts is a massive waste of energy as validation happens across all mining nodes.

COCO is an answer to these problems. It’s not a blockchain in its own right, instead it integrates with blockchains to provide an enterprise trust and governance model. Essentially it provides the capability for a group of participants to agree on a set of rules by which the blockchain should operate. It also starts to solve the latency and bandwidth issues. Ethereum integrated with COCO can achieve 1500+ transactions per second, getting closer to the 2000-5000 that the VISA network processes. In addition because of the way it operates it cuts out the need for mining and smart contract validation on each node, as each node is trusted and thus each transaction once validated on one node is accepted by all others.

You might be wondering how this all works in practice. Well, as always there are layers. At the bottom we’ve got the TEE or trusted execution environment. This can be either hardware or software, but essentially is a place where we can place data and code which is encrypted and which cannot be accessed from the outside. It’s a black box, which can receive input and send outputs, but can’t be directly accessed. This is either implemented in a hardware module like SGX from Intel or the VSM (virtual secure module) built into Windows Server 2016 and protected by the Hypervisor.

The next layer up is the COCO framework. It is the glue which holds things together and also allows the governance rules to be put in place in something called the Constitution. For example, you might agree and implement rules that govern how another party might be added to the network. If you agreed that a majority of agreement was needed, then one entity could propose, via a special admin transaction, that another party be added. Then all others would vote (also by transactions) and the result would be implemented based on the constitution. The COCO framework allows participants to agree on what code runs within the TEE and these governance rules and thus what you have to comply with to be part of the blockchain. If there are any changes to anything within your TEE you are automatically excluded, so there is no chance to break into the network.

Of course on top of the COCO framework runs the blockchain, for example a modified version of Ethereum or others. Microsoft is working to make COCO open source and is partnering with various chains (like JPMC Quorum and Intel Sawtoothlake) to provide integration.

The final piece of the puzzle (for now at least) is that each node member can place ACLs on a transaction, so party A and C can transact without B being able see the content of the transaction. This solves the issues with a single blockchain being used by multiple competitors.

This all sounds pretty interesting, so the next step for me will be to figure out how to set it up in an environment. It can run either fully on prem with Windows Server 2016 or in Azure, so that’s the starting point. I will look into it, and hope to post more here soon.

P.S.

I did wonder whether NEO is integrated with COCO… as MSFT is running a whole bunch of DAPP (distributed application) competitions with the NEO team I guess it might be, but will find out more and update this.


It basically worked…

So patience paid off… I waited out the dip and actually managed to sell my FUN at a profit of 0.02. OK so not a massive profit, but still clearly profit, and frankly given the previous attempts that’s not bad…

I have to say that I did do a fair bit of the selling manually, even though the bot was running. It did sell some, but then I chickened out and sold most of the rest. I think the bot would have sold more, but I didn’t want to risk missing the profit and being greedy. In the end I did leave some money on the table, but not too much so generally a success.

I’ve not got the bot running with a few other pairs, NAV, PIVX, CLOAK and RDD. This is more of an experiment, so we will see how it turns out.


Still quiet and some research on Futures

It’s been another quiet day. Really interesting in that there has been minimal movement in Alt coins. Everything has been a little bit down on the last week so I’m still underwater on FUN, but hey, it’s not dropped out down to the 0.618 Fibonacci level yet, so I’m still hopeful that it will go back up to the 0.786 which is all I need to make a profit.

The other topic that came up today is that apparently the BTC futures are maturing… not sure whether that’s true or even frankly exactly what that means, but it’s something I’m planning on figuring out more about, as it obviously has the potential to impact the market.

These are the two providers of BTC futures and I will be exploring them further when time permits, which (as you can likely tell from the quality/brevity of this post) could be a little while!

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/bitcoin-futures.html

http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures

 


All a bit quiet…

It’s been a very quite day, strange really. Everything seems to be stuck in a small channel. At the moment holding a lot of FUN, without a way out, so we will see where that leads tomorrow!

On the plus side I’ve got the Gunbot up and running, and in theory ready to sell the FUN, so hopefully prices go up and I get a chance to see that in action.

 


More FUN

Patience once again… had I waiting a few more hours I would have turned the £0.90 loss into a decent £200-300 profit.

So I’m having another go, this time with a lower buy in point, staggered from 895 – 890 – 880 – 875.

I will also wait 36-48 hours as needed to hit my sell target and see where that gets me.

More later as things progress.